MLB home run predictions
Every hitter on tonight's slate gets a HR probability between 1% and 30%. Those numbers come from a transparent model that combines batter quality, opposing pitcher, park factor, weather, lineup spot, platoon, recent form, umpire, and 4 other factors. We're calibrated — picks projected at 15% hit ~15% of the time over our public sample.
How we predict MLB home runs
Each batter scores 0-100 across 12 factor categories. The factors are combined into a single weighted score, then converted to an implied probability via a calibration curve we update monthly from settled outcomes.
The implied probabilities are not the same thing as sportsbook odds — books add roughly 10-15% vig (juice) on top of fair odds. So a model 18% pick might be priced at +330 on FanDuel even though fair odds would be +455. The gap is your edge — or the book's, if they have a better model than us.
What makes a HR prediction reliable
- Sample size matters more than recency. 60 PAs of barrel data beats 15 PAs of "hot streak."
- Park × handedness combos. Yankee Stadium lefty pull HRs are a different model than Coors Field altitude HRs.
- Pitcher recent form > pitcher career. A guy with a 4.50 career ERA but a 6.80 last-3 ERA is bleeding HRs right now.
- Lineup spot. Hitters batting 1-3 get 0.5-1 extra plate appearance over hitters batting 7-9.
Frequently asked
How accurate are these MLB home run predictions?
See our /learning page for live calibration data. In short: top-10 picks combined hit at least one HR on ~85% of slates, top-3 hit on ~50-60%. Individual picks at our projected probability rates hit at roughly the projected rate over the season.
Can I bet these picks at sportsbooks?
Sportsbooks offer "anytime home run" markets for most starting hitters. Compare our fair odds to the book line — if the book pays more than our fair odds, you have positive expected value.
How often are predictions updated?
Multiple times per day. Initial rebuild around 8am ET pulls overnight news, then again at 11am and 3pm as lineups post. Picks lock at first pitch of each game.
Do you account for weather and park factors?
Yes. Open-Meteo provides hourly wind, temperature, and humidity for each ballpark. Wind blowing out at 15+ mph in a HR-friendly park pushes our top picks meaningfully higher.
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