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Best MLB home run bets today

Every night MLB plays ~15 games and roughly 25 home runs are hit. Most of them aren't random — they're a product of park, pitcher vulnerability, lineup spot, weather, recent form, and platoon matchup. We rank every probable hitter on the slate using a 12-factor model and show you the full breakdown. Below are tonight's top 5 — fully transparent, no paywall.

Tonight's top plays

No picks available yet — board updates each morning.
See the full board →

What goes into a home run pick

Our model weighs 12 measurable factors for each hitter on the slate. The biggest are batter power (ISO and AB/HR rate), batter Statcast quality (barrel%, hard-hit%), opposing starter HR vulnerability (HR/9, barrel-allowed%), the park's hand-aware HR factor, and game-time weather (wind direction relative to center field, temperature).

Smaller-weighted but still material: opposing bullpen weighted HR/9, home-plate umpire HR rate vs league, opposing catcher framing, handedness platoon, last-15-game form, and lineup spot (a proxy for plate appearances).

Why "best" doesn't mean "guaranteed"

Even the best hitter at the best park in perfect conditions caps out around 25-30% to hit a HR on any given night. That's roughly 1-in-4. If anyone tells you a pick is a lock, run. What our model gives you is honest probability — and over a long sample we're calibrated: picks projected at 18% hit ~18% of the time.

Frequently asked

How often do top-3 picks hit home runs?
Over our public sample, the top-3 ranked picks combined hit at least one HR on roughly 50-60% of slates. See the live calibration data on our homepage and the /learning page for the full breakdown.
Is this site free?
Yes — top 10 picks per day are free, no login required. A subscription unlocks the full 200+ batter board, total bases projections, pitcher props, parlay builder, and bet tracker. There is a 7-day free trial.
How is this different from other MLB pick sites?
Three things: (1) every factor is visible and tweakable — you can adjust slider weights and re-rank; (2) we publish calibration data publicly so you can verify the model works; (3) the picks are computed daily from raw MLB Stats API and Baseball Savant data, not curated by a human.
When do picks update?
The board rebuilds throughout the day as lineups post (typically 3-4 hours before first pitch). Late-scratched players are flagged via email if you have a subscription.

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Get tonight's full board

12-factor model · top 10 free · 7-day trial unlocks the full 200+ batter board, pitcher props, total bases.

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