Best MLB total bases props today
Total bases is the most overlooked prop in MLB betting. The over hits roughly 50% of the time on standard 1.5 lines — but the variance is huge. We project each component (singles, doubles, triples, HRs) separately and combine into an expected total bases number, then run Poisson math against your sportsbook line for an honest over/under edge.
Tonight's top HR plays
No picks available yet — board updates each morning.
Why total bases beat HR props for most bettors
HR props are thin probability events — even the best hitters cap at ~25% on any given night. Total bases props convert at higher base rates: an over 1.5 line hits anytime a hitter gets a single + an extra base, a double, a triple, or a HR. That's far more achievable.
Our TB projection sums four components: x1B (single rate × likely PAs), x2B (doubles rate adjusted for park gaps), x3B (rare but elite speed/park combos), and xHR (the HR model output × 4 bases).
Best TB matchups
- Top of order at Coors, GABP, Yankee: max PAs + best parks = TB gold.
- High-OBP guys vs walking pitchers: walks don't count as TB, but they extend innings and add PAs to the rest of the lineup.
- Doubles parks: Fenway, Coors, Citizens Bank — high doubles rates push TB averages up.
Frequently asked
What does "total bases" mean in MLB betting?
Total bases counts the bases a hitter reaches via base hits. Single = 1, double = 2, triple = 3, HR = 4. Walks do not count. Sportsbook over/under lines are typically set at 1.5 or 2.5.
How is x1B / x2B / x3B / xHR calculated?
Each component is a separate model: single rate × likely PAs × matchup adjustments. Doubles add park-aware multipliers (Fenway Green Monster vs Yankee short porch matter). Triples factor speed + park. HR uses the full 12-factor model. Each component is independent; we sum them for total xTB.
What is the Poisson over/under calculator?
A statistical method that, given an expected mean (our projected TB number), tells you the probability the actual outcome will be above or below any line. Useful for comparing your edge to sportsbook implied probabilities.
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