World Cup 2026 over/under predictions

How the totals model works

Each match is modeled with a bivariate-Poisson approach (with a Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring, draw-heavy games) seeded from team strength and real World Cup qualifying form — actual goals scored and conceded in each confederation's qualifiers, sample-shrunk so a team that padded its stats against minnows isn't overrated. That yields an expected-goals total for each side, and summing the score-probability matrix gives the over/under and both-teams-to-score numbers.

Venue, weather, and a goals slider

The total is nudged by venue and weather: extreme heat and humidity sap the tempo and trim late goals, strong wind and rain hurt clean finishing, and roofed stadiums shrug it all off. You can also tune a goals-environment slider to push the total up or down to match your own read. Pre-tournament the numbers come from team strength and qualifying form; once group games kick off, real results blend in automatically.

Finding value on totals

Paste the book's total (e.g. 2.5) into a match row and compare the model's over probability and fair odds to the price you're being offered. If the book is pricing the over longer than fair, that's a value bet — same transparent, tweakable engine behind every market on the board.