World Cup 2026 goalscorer predictions

How the goalscorer model works

We model each match with a bivariate-Poisson approach (with a Dixon-Coles low-score correction) seeded from team strength and real World Cup qualifying form — actual goals for and against from each confederation's qualifiers, shrunk so a team that ran up the score in a weak group doesn't get overrated. That gives each side an expected-goals total for the match.

We then split a team's expected goals across its squad by attacking role and shirt-number signal — the focal #9 striker carries more of the load than a defensive midfielder — to get each player's anytime-goal probability. That becomes the Goal Score: 100 ≈ an elite striker in a great spot. Venue and weather are factored in too (heat, wind and rain trim total goals; roofed stadiums shrug it off).

Reading the projections

Sort the Props tab by Goal Score to see the most likely scorers on a given match day, with anytime % and fair odds for each. Compare the fair price to your sportsbook's anytime-scorer line — if the book is longer, that's a value bet. Pre-tournament the numbers are seeded from team strength and qualifying form; once group games play, real results blend in automatically.