Lucas Spence (L)
HOU vs
MIA· Daikin Park2026-07-20
HR Score
43.2
Rank #219 of 385
Model HR%
9.3%
probability this game
Fair odds
+972
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Platoon edge
65
Starter vulnerability
58
Weather
57
Park factor
54
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Janson Junk
RHP · 1.25 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
103
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.