Sean Keys (L)
TOR vs
SD· Petco Park2026-07-10
HR Score
45.0
Rank #148 of 377
Model HR%
10.1%
probability this game
Fair odds
+888
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Starter vulnerability
97
Weather
58
Contact quality
50
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
JP Sears
LHP · 2.35 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
92
HR suppressor
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.