Kevin McGonigle (L)
DET vs
PHI· Comerica Park2026-07-10
HR Score
38.4
Rank #268 of 377
Model HR%
7.5%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1226
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Platoon edge
76
Starter vulnerability
65
Weather
52
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Aaron Nola
RHP · 1.86 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
97
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.