Jim Jarvis (L)
ATL vs
STL· Busch Stadium2026-07-10
HR Score
45.9
Rank #137 of 377
Model HR%
10.6%
probability this game
Fair odds
+848
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Platoon edge
66
Weather
64
Starter vulnerability
55
Lineup spot
51
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Kyle Leahy
RHP · 0.94 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.