Rafael Flores Jr. (R)
PIT vs
MIL· PNC Park2026-07-11
HR Score
51.5
Rank #70 of 295
Model HR%
13.6%
probability this game
Fair odds
+638
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
HP umpire
100
Starter vulnerability
61
Pitcher tendency
61
Batter power
61
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Brandon Sproat
RHP · 1.65 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
93
HR suppressor
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.