Luis Lara (S)
MIL vs
PIT· PNC Park2026-07-11
HR Score
43.4
Rank #157 of 327
Model HR%
9.4%
probability this game
Fair odds
+962
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
HP umpire
100
Platoon edge
60
Weather
58
Starter vulnerability
53
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP · 1.11 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
93
HR suppressor
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.