Nathan Church (L)
STL vs
ATL· Busch Stadium2026-07-10
HR Score
37.6
Rank #285 of 377
Model HR%
7.3%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1273
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
64
Recent form
53
Pitcher tendency
50
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Chris Sale
LHP · 0.76 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.