Ben Rice (L)
NYY vs
WSH· Nationals Park2026-07-10
HR Score
62.6
Rank #13 of 377
Model HR%
20.7%
probability this game
Fair odds
+382
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Recent form
100
Batter vs pitch mix + location
98
Batter power
93
Contact quality
72
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Carson Palmquist
LHP · 0.00 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
102
neutral
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.