Esmerlyn Valdez (R)
PIT vs
MIL· PNC Park2026-07-10
HR Score
62.1
Rank #17 of 381
Model HR%
20.4%
probability this game
Fair odds
+390
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Batter vs pitch mix + location
100
Contact quality
82
Batter power
82
Recent form
82
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Brandon Sproat
RHP · 1.59 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
93
HR suppressor
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.