Jackson Chourio (R)
MIL vs
PIT· PNC Park2026-07-10
HR Score
53.1
Rank #59 of 377
Model HR%
14.5%
probability this game
Fair odds
+589
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Batter vs pitch mix + location
100
Contact quality
71
Batter power
63
Weather
55
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP · 1.00 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
93
HR suppressor
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.