Colt Keith (L)
DET vs
PHI· Comerica Park2026-07-10
HR Score
43.0
Rank #180 of 381
Model HR%
9.3%
probability this game
Fair odds
+982
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Platoon edge
76
Starter vulnerability
65
Weather
52
Recent form
51
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Aaron Nola
RHP · 1.86 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
97
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.