Victor Mesa Jr. (L)
TB vs
SEA· Tropicana Field2026-07-10
HR Score
44.0
Rank #165 of 377
Model HR%
9.7%
probability this game
Fair odds
+934
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Platoon edge
69
Starter vulnerability
53
Recent form
52
Batter power
51
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Luis Castillo
RHP · 0.98 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.