Francisco Alvarez (R)
NYM vs
BOS· Citi Field2026-07-10
HR Score
50.3
Rank #73 of 377
Model HR%
12.9%
probability this game
Fair odds
+677
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Recent form
63
Contact quality
63
Weather
62
Starter vulnerability
52
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Sonny Gray
RHP · 1.00 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
96
neutral
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.