Nick Loftin (R)
KC vs
BAL· Oriole Park at Camden Yards2026-07-10
HR Score
38.4
Rank #269 of 377
Model HR%
7.5%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1226
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
59
Starter vulnerability
52
Pitcher tendency
50
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Brandon Young
RHP · 0.81 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
98
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.