Curtis Mead (R)
WSH vs
NYY· Nationals Park2026-07-10
HR Score
57.8
Rank #31 of 381
Model HR%
17.5%
probability this game
Fair odds
+470
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Batter vs pitch mix + location
94
Platoon edge
71
Batter power
70
Weather
67
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Ryan Weathers
LHP · 1.56 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
102
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.