Jared Triolo (R)
PIT vs
MIL· PNC Park2026-07-10
HR Score
29.4
Rank #373 of 377
Model HR%
5.3%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1781
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Starter vulnerability
63
Weather
55
Platoon edge
53
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Brandon Sproat
RHP · 1.59 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
93
HR suppressor
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.