Josh Rojas (L)
KC vs
BAL· Oriole Park at Camden Yards2026-07-10
HR Score
46.6
Rank #123 of 377
Model HR%
10.9%
probability this game
Fair odds
+818
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
59
Platoon edge
57
Starter vulnerability
52
Pitcher tendency
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Brandon Young
RHP · 0.81 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
98
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.