Ryan Vilade (R)
TB vs
SEA· Tropicana Field2026-07-10
HR Score
42.9
Rank #181 of 377
Model HR%
9.2%
probability this game
Fair odds
+986
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Recent form
55
Starter vulnerability
53
Batter power
52
Pitcher tendency
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Luis Castillo
RHP · 0.98 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.