Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)
NYY vs
WSH· Nationals Park2026-07-10
HR Score
44.3
Rank #160 of 377
Model HR%
9.8%
probability this game
Fair odds
+920
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
67
Park factor
51
Lineup spot
51
Pitcher tendency
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Carson Palmquist
LHP · 0.00 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
102
neutral
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.