Nathan Lukes (L)
TOR vs
SD· Petco Park2026-07-10
HR Score
32.7
Rank #348 of 377
Model HR%
6.0%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1571
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Starter vulnerability
97
Weather
58
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
HP umpire
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
JP Sears
LHP · 2.35 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
92
HR suppressor
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.