Tyler Stephenson (R)
CIN vs
CHC· Great American Ball Park2026-07-10
HR Score
57.4
Rank #38 of 377
Model HR%
17.3%
probability this game
Fair odds
+479
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Batter vs pitch mix + location
96
Park factor
91
Bullpen vulnerability
69
Weather
67
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Shota Imanaga
LHP · 1.83 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
116
HR-friendly
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.