Romy Gonzalez (R)
BOS vs
NYM· Citi Field2026-07-10
HR Score
44.1
Rank #163 of 377
Model HR%
9.7%
probability this game
Fair odds
+929
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
62
Pitcher tendency
55
Starter vulnerability
51
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Nolan McLean
RHP · 0.89 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
96
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.