Jahmai Jones (R)
BOS vs
TB· Fenway Park2026-07-17
HR Score
30.2
Rank #335 of 346
Model HR%
5.5%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1732
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
HP umpire
100
Weather
64
Starter vulnerability
59
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Griffin Jax
RHP · 1.56 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
98
neutral
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.