Chadwick Tromp (R)
BAL vs
BOS· Fenway Park2026-07-21
HR Score
40.9
Rank #241 of 386
Model HR%
8.4%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1089
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
62
Platoon edge
53
Starter vulnerability
52
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Ranger Suarez
LHP · 0.49 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
98
neutral
Want the full board with all 12 factor sliders, K props, parlay builder, and bet tracker?
Start 7-day free trial →$9.99/mo after. Cancel anytime.
Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.