J.P. Crawford (L)
SEA vs
TB· Tropicana Field2026-07-10
HR Score
38.7
Rank #262 of 377
Model HR%
7.6%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1209
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Platoon edge
69
Starter vulnerability
51
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
Weather
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Nick Martinez
RHP · 0.90 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.