Jorge Mateo (R)
ATL vs
STL· Busch Stadium2026-07-10
HR Score
41.9
Rank #191 of 377
Model HR%
8.8%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1037
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
64
Starter vulnerability
55
Contact quality
52
Lineup spot
51
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Kyle Leahy
RHP · 0.94 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.