Matt Olson (L)
ATL vs
STL· Busch Stadium2026-07-10
HR Score
63.9
Rank #8 of 377
Model HR%
21.6%
probability this game
Fair odds
+363
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Batter vs pitch mix + location
100
Recent form
82
Batter power
81
Contact quality
79
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Kyle Leahy
RHP · 0.94 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
95
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.