Manny Machado (R)
SD vs
TOR· Petco Park2026-07-10
HR Score
57.5
Rank #35 of 377
Model HR%
17.3%
probability this game
Fair odds
+477
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Starter vulnerability
100
Batter vs pitch mix + location
99
Recent form
81
Batter power
67
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Shane Bieber
RHP · 4.15 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
92
HR suppressor
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.