Nolan Arenado (R)
AZ vs
LAD· UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium2026-07-10
HR Score
39.3
Rank #244 of 377
Model HR%
7.8%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1176
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Weather
60
Recent form
53
Park factor
51
Pitcher tendency
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Shohei Ohtani
RHP · 0.42 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
104
neutral
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.