Marcell Ozuna (R)
PIT vs
MIL· PNC Park2026-07-10
HR Score
39.0
Rank #254 of 377
Model HR%
7.7%
probability this game
Fair odds
+1192
no-juice break-even
Top factors driving this score
Starter vulnerability
63
Weather
55
Batter vs pitch mix + location
50
HP umpire
50
Matchup
Opposing pitcher
Brandon Sproat
RHP · 1.59 HR/9
Park factor (HR)
93
HR suppressor
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Free model, transparent factors. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.