NFL player props

How NFL prop projections are built

Each projection starts from a player's per-game production, blended with recent form and bayes-shrunk so a small sample doesn't overreact. We then adjust for the game environment — the team's implied points and the game total, since volume scales with how much a team is expected to score and throw — and the matchup, how the opponent's defense performs against that position.

Defense vs position, built in

Open any player and you get a league-wide defense-vs-position read: how many rushing/receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns each defense allows to QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs per game — versus the league average, with a rank from 1 to 32. A slot receiver against the defense that surrenders the most yards to WRs is a very different prop than the same player against a top-five secondary. We pair it with the player's game log so you can read the spot yourself.

Paste a line, find the edge

Type the book's line on any row and we return your over probability and the fair (no-vig) odds from the projection's distribution. If the book's price is longer than fair, the over carries positive expected value. Same transparent engine as our MLB and WNBA boards — every number is yours to verify.