2026 Home Run Derby — Projections

The 2026 Derby is swing-based, so it’s clean math: expected homers = per-swing HR rate × swing budget (20 in Round 1, 15 in the semis/final). We set each hitter’s per-swing HR rate from their Statcast power — barrel% (the best HR-quality signal), average exit velocity and hard-hit%, plus a launch-angle “loft fit” (a home-run contest rewards a ~20–25° swing; screamer/grounder hitters get docked). Then we Monte-Carlo the actual bracket 20,000 times — open Round 1, top 4 advance, seeded head-to-head semis and final with the 3-swing swing-off tiebreaker — to get win odds. It’s a fun projection, not financial advice.