Best NFL anytime touchdown props

How the touchdown model works

Each player's anytime-TD probability is built from their per-game rushing and receiving touchdown rate, scaled by the team's implied points (a high-scoring team scores more TDs to go around) and the opponent's defense. We turn that probability into a 0–100 TD Score so the best goal-line and red-zone threats rise to the top. Yardage and reception props are projected the same transparent way — season rate, recent form, matchup, and game environment.

2025 defense vs position, built in

Open any player and you get a league-wide defense-vs-position read from last season: how many rushing/receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns each defense allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs per game — versus league average, with a rank. A receiver facing the defense that gave up the most yards to WRs is a very different spot than one against a top-five secondary. We pair that with the game total, the team's implied points, and the player's 2025 game log so you can read the matchup yourself. (It uses 2025 data through the preseason and sharpens to the current year once Week 1 kicks off.)

Paste a line, see the edge

For yardage and reception props, type the book's line into any row and we return your over probability and the fair (no-vig) odds. Compare the fair price to the book — longer than fair means a positive-EV over. Same engine and transparency as our MLB and WNBA boards.